Many people say:
“The scale of the negative effects of climate change is often overstated and there is no need for urgent action.”
Under one of its mid range estimates, the Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – the world’s leading authority on climate change – has projected a global average temperature increase this century of two to three degrees centigrade. This would mean that the earth will experience a larger climate change than it has experienced for at least 10,000 years. The impact and pace of this change would be difficult for many people and the ecosystems to adapt to.
However, the IPCC has pointed out that as climate change progresses it is likely that negative effects wold begin to dominate almost everywhere. Increasing temperatures are likely, for example to increase the frequency and severity of weather events such as heatwaves, storms and flooding.
Furthermore there are real concerns that, in the longterm, rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere could set in motion large scale and potentially abrupt changes in our planet’s natural systems and some of these could be irreversible. Increasing temperatures could, for example, lead to the melting of large ice sheets with major consequences for low lying areas throughout the world.
And the impact of climate change will fall disproportionately upon developing countries and the poor – those who could can least afford to adapt. Thus a changing climate will exacerbate inequalities in, for example, health and access to adequate food and water.
For many people, their opinion on climate change is more a religious type of faith rather than one based on science. It’s understandable because most of us are not experts and must rely on the work of those who are.
“The climate is actually affected by cosmic rays.”
Cosmic rays are fast moving particles which come from space, and release electric charge in the atmosphere. Any effect that cosmic rays could have on the climate is not yet very well understood, but if there is one, it is likely to be small.
Experiments done in a laboratory hint that cosmic rays could play a role in the development of tiny particles that could in turn play a part in the formation of clouds. If this happens in the same way in the atmosphere – which isn’t proven – it might lead to more clouds, which generally have a cooling effect by reflecting the sun’s rays back into space. Whether the whole chain of processes actually occurs in the atmosphere is speculative, but some of the individual steps are plausible.
It has been proposed that this process would act to enhance the influences of the sun on the climate. We know that when the sun is more active it’s magnetic field is stronger and this deflects cosmic rays away from the earth. So the argument is that a more active sun would lead to fewer cosmic rays reaching the earth, resulting in fewer clouds and therefore a warmer earth.
However, observations of clouds and galactic cosmic rays show that, at most, the possible link between cosmic rays and clouds only produces a small effect. Even if cosmic rays were shown to have a more substantial impact, the level of solar activity has changed to little over the last few decades the process could not explain the recent rises in temperature that we have seen.