Climate Change Debate – the Scientific Evidence
The severity and speed of man-made climate change is one of the key factors which will determine the amount of food that can be produced in the future. Most of us desperately wish it wasn’t happening and perhaps that explains why people are quick to believe anything coming from the sceptics. The East Anglia email scandal is an example of something fairly insignificant that is used to feed scepticism in the population, most of whom have not looked closely at the evidence or science.
I have heard people say that they would like to see the arguments explained by experts in an easy to understand way.
It’s great therefore that The Royal Society – as the UK’s national academy of science – has responded to eight key misleading arguments by setting out where the weight of scientific evidence lies.
We at Peak Food will show abbreviated versions of each of these arguments.
MISLEADING ARGUMENT 1
The Earth’s climate is always changing and this is nothing to do with humans. Even before the industrial revolution, when humans began pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere on a large scale, the earth experienced warmer periods.
WHAT DOES THE SCIENCE SAY?
The world has experienced warmer or colder periods in the past without any interference from humans. The ice ages are well-known examples of global changes to the climate. There have also been regional changes such as periods known as the ‘Medieval Warm Period’, when less sea ice and larger areas of cultivated land were reported in Iceland.
However, in contrast to these climate phases, the increase of three-quarters of a degree centigrade in average global temperatures over the last century is larger than can be accounted for by natural factors alone.
The Earth’s climate is complex and influenced by many things- particularly changes in the Earth’s orbit in relation to the Sun, which has driven the cycle of ice ages in the past. Volcanic eruptions and variations in the energy being emitted from the Sun have also had an effect. But even taking these factors into account, we cannot explain the temperature rises that we have seen over the last 100 years both on land and in the oceans- for example ,eleven of the last twelve years from 1995, have been the hottest years since records started in 1850.
So what is causing this increase in average global temperature? The natural greenhouse effect keeps the Earth around 30c warmer than it would otherwise be and, without it, the Earth would be extremely cold.
The ability of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to act like a blanket and
trap heat has been understood for nearly 200 years and is regarded as firmly established science.
Any increase in the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere mean that more heat is trapped and global temperatures increase-an effect known as ‘global warming’. We know from looking at gases found trapped in cores of polar ice that the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are now 35% greater than they have been for at least the last 650,000 years. The increase in global temperature is consistent with what science tells us we should expect when the levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increase in the way that they have.
It is alleged that the increased level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is due to emissions from volcanoes, but these account for less than one per cent of the emissions due to human activities.
TOTAL Oil Boss gives Peak Oil Warning
In the last few years there have been a series of remarkable u-turns from the world’s top oil companies. Not long ago they were saying that man-made climate change was a myth and funding scientists who were prepared to agree with that. Now, however, they all say that climate change is taking place and that greenhouse gas emissions are at least partly responsible. Indeed, they are all spending millions to prove their green credentials by starting projects that will reduce emissions to some extent.
Peak Oil and Peak Food
Peak Oil is another matter. Until now the message coming from the oil companies is that Peak Oil – the time when a peak in production is reached, followed by a decline in production in the face of increasing demand, causing severe shortages – is many decades in to the future. Recently though there are indications that at least one company has changed its mind.
In this week’s Time magazine, Christophe de Boisseson, CEO of the French oil giant Total, speaks openly about the nightmare scenario oil shortages that most energy firms prefer to avoid or deny. De Margerie says the possible effects on the world economy of dwindling oil supplies are so great that, “I am not prepared to shut my mouth.” Shortly after taking over at Total he jolted executives at a London conference by stating that the industry would be unlikely to produce more than 100 million barrels a day, far below the 120 million or so the International Energy Agency estimates the world could produce by 2030, and which will be needed for Asia’s galloping growth. De Margerie now says 90 million barrel a day is “optimistic.”
This is worrying for the health of the world economy, but for the future of food production it is devastating. Western agriculture is totally dependent on oil and the rest of the world is rapidly becoming so. It is expected that food production will need to double in the next 40 years as the population continues to rise and as more people demand a better diet. To increase food production using modern methods requires a corresponding increase in fossil energy inputs. A serious shortage would cause the farming industry to collapse.
The truth about our situation is so unpalatable that most people will prefer to not believe it, but it must be said. The carrying capacity of the Earth has been temporarily increased by the massive use of finite resources. When these resources become depleted, the Earth’s carrying capacity and therefore its population will be reduced – in other words mass starvation and we in the West are the most vulnerable.
Role of Agriculture in Global Warming
Peak Food author John Gossop this week had this article printed on pages 28 and 29 of the Farmers Weekly under the topic of the week section. Dated 8th January 2010, the article was entitled ‘Agriculture has a key role in taking heat out of global warming debate’. The issues raised were then then debated on the Farmers Weekly Forum.
The need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and at the same time slow the depletion of finite oil and gas reserves has massive implications for the future of farming, which has become nothing more than a system of converting cheap, plentiful calories into a much smaller amount of expensive food calories. As oil and gas supplies are finite, and their production is expected to peak soon and then decline, our present farming system must be regarded as temporary.
As the world moves to collecting and using more of the abundant solar energy that reaches us every day, the most important method will be to use plants to collect solar energy to synthesise simple carbohydrates from carbon dioxide and water – in other words agriculture. But to feed the nine billion people predicted by 2050 with fewer fossil inputs, we will need to grow more of our input energy, fix more of our nitrogen and recycle more nutrients. It will be a massive challenge, but agriculture will surely become the most important industry in the world.
John Gossop speaks on Vegetarianism
Following headlines in the national news about Sir Paul McCartney’s call for everyone to eat let meat, John Gossop, author of Peak Food, spoke on Andy Comfort’s Morning Show on Radio Humberside. John answered questions alongside Annette Pinner, Chief Executive of the Vegitarian Society.
John Gossop Radio Humberside
Click below to listen to the interview. It is in two parts and not all is included due to download limitations.
radio-humberside-4th-dec-09-part-1
John Gossop speaking on Radio Humberside part 2
Soil and Peak Food.
In David R. Montgomery’s brilliant book,”Dirt, The Erosion of Civilizations”, he explains the effect of poor soil management on past civilizations and the likely effect on our own. Excerpts from the last page should be read by anyone worried about our future:
“As much as climare change, the demand for food will be a major driver of global environmental change throughout the coming decades. Over the past century, the effects of long-term soil erosion were masked by bringing new land under cultivation and developing fertilizers, pesticides, and crop verieties that compensate for declining soil productivity. Coupled with the inevitable end of fossil-fuel-derived fertilisers, the ongoing loss of cropland and soil poses the problem of feeding a growing population from a shrinking land base. Whereas the effects of soil erosion can be temporarily offset with fertilizers and in some cases irrigation, the long-term productivity of the land cannot be maintained in the face of reduced soil organic matter, depleted soil biota, and thinning soil that so far have characterized industrial agriculture.
“Many factors may contribute to ending a civilization, but an adequate supply of fertile soil is necessary to sustain one. Using up the soil and moving on to new land will not be a viable option for future generations. As odd as it may sound, civilization’s survival depends on treating soil as an investment, as a valuable inheritance rather than a commodity – as something other than dirt.”
Buy Famine in the West Printed Book £6.49 +pp
Buy Famine in the West Ebook £2.99
Twitter
