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Rice Shortage

April 20th, 2008 by admin

The price of rice has more than doubled in the last year causing great hardship to many of the world’s poorest people.

 In the West, the cost of food is a very small part of our weekly outgoings and most of that cost is for processing, transport, packaging etc. When the price of the basic food ingredients such as wheat and barley goes up the effect is not usually too damaging.

By contrast, a large proportion of the world’s people were already spending up to 70% of their income on food so that a doubling  of price makes their situation perilous to say the least.

The very worrying point is that these food shortages have not been caused by a sudden drop in production due to bad harvests, but by demand slowly overtaking supply. Last year consumption incresed by 0.9% to 424 million tonnes but production only increased by about 0.7%. The slow reduction in world stocks has now put the world’s poorest people in a very dangerous position because if we now had a series of poor harvests there would be widespread starvation. Unfortunatly, climate change increases the chance of this happening.

There have already been food riots in many countries and the people at most risk are those in countries that import much of their grain. When supplies are short, exporting countries quickly restrict exports to protect their own people and keep domestic prices down. There is already panic buying and hording but a bad harvest would make things much, much worse.

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Water shortages and Peak Food

March 24th, 2008 by admin

The world is becoming short of many things as a rising and more affluent population demands more of everything.

Water is in a class of it’s own when it comes to the things we can’t manage without. We need it for drinking, growing food, industry and household use.

An estimated 1 billion people do not have access to an adequate water supply while the developing world needs much more water per person as they move to a diet with more meat and as fast growing industry and urban development consume vast amounts of water.

At the same time as this is happening, many of the world’s great aquifers are becoming depleted. Water is being pumped from ever deeper levels. In places such as the High Plains in the U.S. and parts of India and China, this is starting to effect food production. But just as bad is the unreliability of rainfall due to climate change. Farmers plan their cropping according to the weather patterns they have come to expect but if rain comes at the wrong time or in quantities much greater or smaller then expected, yields suffer.

It is estimated that in twenty years time we will each have one third less water available than we do now. This will inevitably mean less food per person.

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Will Climate Change or Peak Oil cause Peak Food?

March 5th, 2008 by admin

There are many threats to food production that are discussed in our book,”Famine in the West”, but most people think that the biggest threats are climate change and peak oil, the time when oil production peaks and then begins a fairly rapid decline in the face of greater demand.

Climate change will bring much more unreliable weather with extremes of heat, drought and floods that will cause huge fluctuations in supply from year to year. With very low world carry over stocks, we are bound to hit a year when there is not enough to go around, at which time panic buying will make things much worse and starvation will juego portales internetvideo poker gratiscasinos virtuales paginas webjuego ruleta casinocasinos argentinaruleta fortuna onlinecasino virtual gratisruleta americana paginas internetmaquinas tragaperras pagina webjugar al instante lineacasino virtualesvideo poker paginas internetroulette portales internetapuesta en lineacasinos descargas lineajuegos portalescasino eurodescarga gratis la ruletajuegos descargaruleta americana pagina internetcasino en internetroulette grand jeuganar premio portales internetapuestas libre en lineajugar seguro portal internetcasinos internacionales onlinecasino librejuegos de azarjugar seguro webfree casino game,free casino,free casino gamesjugar tragamonedas internetruleta rusa gratisfree casino gamespromocion casino paginas webcasinos descargas pagina webtragamonedas webpremios portalpremio dinero paginas internetharveys hotel casinoruleta americana lineacasino online españapremio dinero portales internetonline crapscasino internacional paginas internetjugar de la ruletacasinos portales internetjuego instantaneo paginas internetganar premios portal internetcasion on netwww casino on net result.

Peak oil, causing very tight supplies and then a real shortage, will make it much more likely that a sudden further reduction in supply caused by upheaval in the middle east or terrorist activity would bring chaos and collapse to our oil dependent food production system. The U.S. is very vulnerable as it imports two thirds of it’s oil. Europe becomes more vulnerable by the day.

It might be thought that oil shortages will help reduce CO2 emissions and therefore global warming but unfortunatly attempts will be made to partially replace oil with liquified coal, oil shales and tar sand, all of which will produce far more CO2.

The only answer is to use much less fossil fuel to both reduce emissions and to slow oil depletion. To do this on a voluntary basis as individuals and countries will be allmost impossible. We need to replace all existing taxes by a massive carbon tax to speed the change and innovation needed. Anything less drastic will mean failure and eventual famine.

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