June 14th, 2007 by John
Peak Oil was the subject of a lead article in The Independent on 14th June 2007.
Reporter Daniel Howden said, “A survey of the four countries with the biggest reported reserves - Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Kuwait - reveals major concerns. In Kuwait last year, a journalist found documents suggesting the country’s real reserves were half of what was reported. Iran this year became the first major oil producer to introduce oil rationing - an indication of the administration’s view on which way oil reserves are going.
“Sadad al-Huseini knows more about Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves than perhaps anyone else. He retired as chief executive of the kingdom’s oil corporation two years ago, and his view on how much Saudi production can be increased is sobering, ‘The problem is that you go from 79 million barrels a day in 2002 to 84.5 million in 2004. You’re leaping by two to three million (barrels a day) each year,’ he told The New York Times. ‘That’s like a whole new Saudi Arabia every couple of years. It can’t be done indefinitely’.”
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When oil and gas supplies become insufficient to meet the world demand, due to” Peak Oil”, war in the Middle East or concerted terrorist attacks on oil refineries and pipelines, panic and hoarding will take place, compounding the problem. Oil companies will try to hold on to supplies to get higher prices later, while users will try to get hold of any supplies they can to keep their businesses going.
Governments will be forced to bring in some kind of rationing system, but every sector will plead that they are a special case and cannot manage with less, so a cut across the board will probably be the outcome with each business receiving a proportion of their normal consumption.
So where does the farmer cut consumption? Does he cultivate the soil less, apply less fertiliser, less pesticides, or leave the grain undried? He can’t do less harvesting or transporting the grain to storage so he will have to decide between cutting inputs and therefore yield across all his land or leaving some land uncropped. Whatever he does will mean less output and food shortages. Under our present system, less oil and gas is bound to mean less food. For those unfamiliar with how a modern farm functions Farming Friends gives an excellent insight .
At such a time of crisis, energy rationing is bound to be followed by food rationing, and a “Dig for Victory” type campaign similar to the one in WWII where people were encouraged to dig up their lawns to grow vegetables is likely. This type of small scale production has the big advantage of needing almost no fossil fuel inputs. Solar energy in the form of human muscle does the work and the fertility of the soil is maintained by growing legume crops such as peas and beans in the rotation and the use of compost.
Unfortunately, the skills needed to successfully grow vegetables are not now widespread, so for many people, starting to grow now would be a good idea. One place to find out more about how to do this is at Topveg.
