Can Organic Farming solve Peak Food?
We are probably close to the time when the amount of food that can be grown for each person in the world will peak and then go in to decline as the population continues to grow and the problems of energy, water and land shortages get worse. In addition, global warming will cause extreme weather related crop losses from time to time.
Our modern farming system is now totally reliant on oil and gas for power, nitrogen fertilizer and pesticides and is therefore vulnerable to energy shortages caused by depletion or disruption. Phosphate, potash and other nutrients have to be mined and applied as the natural soil nutrient cycle has also been broken.
Advocates of organic farming believe that it is the only sustainable method of farming, but can it feed the world in the future?
Organic farmers do not use chemical fertilizers or pesticides. Instead they use animal manure together with crop rotation that usually includes nitrogen fixing legume crops, to build soil fertility. They claim that healthy soils produce healthy crops that are less vulnerable to disease and can thrive without chemical fungicides and insecticides. They use mechanical hoeing, hand weeding and other techniques to control weeds.
As a conventional farmer growing wheat and vegetables, I have gone along with all the latest methods to increase yields and reduce labour as they have become available, but I have the greatest admiration for those farmers who are able to work with nature and produce good food in what they say is a sustainable way. In the future we will have much to learn from these people as we build a sustainable, high yield agriculture.
But can organic farming resolve peak food and feed the world? Sadly, I think not. Unfortunately, the once and for all binge of abundant cheap fossil energy that we conventional farmers have been able to convert to huge amounts of food energy has allowed the world population to go way above what it’s carrying capacity would be without oil and gas.
In organic farming systems, yields are usually much lower and depend on high numbers of livestock to provide manure. Organic farmers usually use tractors, combines and other machinery powered by diesel and the very effective crop covers that protect crops from pests such as carrot fly, cabbage root fly etc are made from oil. Effective weed control in field scale crops is very difficult without weed killers especially in slow growing crops such as onions and carrots.
If we still had a 1930’s population of 2 billion, I think a sustainable organic system with minimal fossil inputs would work well, but to feed the 8 billion expected by 2025 would be impossible.
So, is there any way 8 to 9 billion people can be fed in 15 to 30 years time with dwindling energy, water and land resources?
I believe it is unlikely, but if there is any chance, we need to be making plans now to work out how we can collect more solar energy through plants and use it in a sustainable way.
We will need to use part of the cellulose portion of the crop for our power needs and use low till methods to leave remaining crop residues close to the surface to protect soil from erosion.
We will need to eat less meat so that arable crops can feed humans directly and restrict livestock to land unsuitable for crops. Animals can also be used to convert waste in to meat.
Research should be done to breed improved legume crops such as peas and beans that can provide vegetable protein and at the same time fix nitrogen to improve soil fertility, and we must find ways to return all nutrients to the soil, even by putting human waste through a digester to provide bio-gas and fertilizer.
There is much that can be done to devise a sustainable food system by combining the best principles of organic farming with non damaging, low energy input methods that include some help from inorganic fertilizer and low toxic pesticides. But we need to start now.
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As you point out, organic agriculture is time and labor-intensive. A common misperception is that the fruit of these labors is less than that yielded through non-organic means. Additionally, it is often mistakenly assumed that organic cannot feed the world. In fact, several studies have shown that organic production is on par with, and sometimes superior to, conventional production levels, and that it offers a compelling and sustainable alternative to conventional approaches toward addressing the world’s hunger problems.
A United Nations report—Organic Agriculture and Food Security in Africa—released in October 2008 found organic farming offers African and other developing countries the most hope for feeding their people. Findings by the U.N. Environment Programme showed that organic practices raise yields, improve the soil, and boost the income of developing countries’ small farmers. Similarly, the Long-term Agro-ecological Research (LTAR) initiative at Iowa State University’s Neely-Kinyon Farm found yields equal or greater than conventional counterparts for organic corn, soybeans and oats. In 2007, for instance, the organic corn yielded more than the conventional with 209 bushels per acre compared to 188 bushes per acre for the conventional corn. Meanwhile, researchers at the University of Michigan found that organic farming can yield up to three times as much food as conventional farming on the same amount of land in developing countries.
In light of such findings, as well as the many personal health and environmental benefits that organic agriculture has to offer, it is becoming clearer that while it may take work, organic offers a sustainable solution that addresses the world’s hunger problems and the long-term health of the planet.