Peak Food

Last week (April 18th 2008) Farmers Weekly printed a comment by Peak Food writer, John Gossop, on their Talking Point page.   Can’t Produce Food if Fuel Tanks are Empty (435 words long) explains how one of the greatest dangers to world food security is a sudden shortage of fossil fuels. 

Some of David Richardson’s recent articles have correctly pointed out that we once again face the prospect of food shortages. He estimates that over the next 40 years it will be necessary to double the total production of food while using less land and less water.

I fully agree. But, to appreciate the size of this task, we should consider the way that we have managed to increase food production over the past 60 years and decide if we can rise to the challenge.

The massive increases in yields have been achieved using equally massive inputs o resources such as phosphate and potash, but, most importantly, fossil fuels in the form of oil and gas to provide us with power, nitrogen fertiliser and pesticides.

Farming has become a highly efficient way of converting prehistoric sunshine – conveniently stored for us as oil and gas – into food. We now use, on average, 10 calories of fossil fuel energy to produce one calorie of food energy. This conversion rate works well when oil and gas supplies are cheap, reliable and infinite, but doesn’t work well when the opposite is the case.

In the early 20th century, about 30% of farmland was needed to feed the millions of horses used in farming, transport and the army. Mechanisation released this land to grow crops for human consumption. Then came improved varieties, both in the west and those were used in the ‘Green revolution’ in Asia and Latin America. These gave huge increases in yield compared with old varieties, but only if greater inputs of fertiliser, pesticides and water were used.

But we have to accept that the world is running out of cheap land, water, oil, gas, phosphate, potash and other resources. There is going to be less of these per capita, and therefore, less food per capita.

One of the greatest dangers we face is a sudden shortage of oil due to an event such as war in the Middle East or concerted terrorist activity. Strangely, western governments worry about energy security, but not about food security. They don’t appear to realise that if our diesel tanks run dry we can produce no food.

David Richardson’s suggestion that we should have an immediate injection of cash for research and advice is a good one. But I would suggest that the cash injection needs to be massive.

We need to greatly reduce fossil energy inputs compared with food energy output and find ways to recycle nutrients instead of flushing them down the sewers of the great cities. It’s going to be one of the biggest challenges o the near future.