Unfortunatley, that shows just how little some members of the government have grasped about the terrible effects climate change will have. Without quick and drastic action now, it is almost certain that global warming will go over the 2c rise that many experts say will trigger runaway effects that cannot be stopped. Such effects would so devastate world farming that the problem would be the threat of famine rather than obesity.
Climate Change and Obesity
October 14, 2007 · Filed Under Uncategorized · Comment
Government minister, Alan Johnson, has recently said that obesity may be as big a problem in the future as climate change.
Peak Oil Theory gains Support
October 9, 2007 · Filed Under Uncategorized · Comment
The theory that oil production will soon peak and then go in to decline at a time of ever rising demand was not taken seriously by many people until recently, even though it should be obvious that a finite resource cannot be extracted in ever larger amounts for ever. For us, who worry about the challenge of feeding a growing and more demanding world population, it is very important as our farming system cannot now function without adequate and reliable supplies of oil and gas.
The following is part of an article from The Buffalo News:
” It seems longer ago than it really was: gasoline prices at the pumps were half what they are now, and oil prices by the barrel were a quarter of the current price. In recent years, politicians and news media have discussed these issues — and yet the prices keep rising. Each time there’s a significant jump, oil company executives give simplistic excuses for the reasons they make $20 billion to $40 billion in profits per year.
“It’s a bad enough situation. But what is rarely discussed is that in less than a decade, the issue will not be the price of gasoline — it will be Read the rest of this entry »
“Peak Food” recognised by Financial Experts
The mounting problems of food supply are slowly being recognised by financial experts who are working out how they can profit by investing in land, farming companies, and machinery makers. They are also trading on the futures markets for farm commodities. The following is part of a piece in Money Week:
“The simple facts of the matter are that the global population is exploding and exponential increases in demand from countries like China and India are straining a system that is already overloaded by demand and has been taxed by weather problems globally.
“The wheat crop has been hit especially hard this year as droughts, floods, disease, and even frost have taken their toll. Wheat has risen to $9 a bushel, and $10 is entirely possible later this year. Meanwhile, the soybean complex is also soaring, as pent-up demand, especially from China, is keeping this market very well supported.
“It’s important to realize that not only do we have exponentially higher demand for soybeans from a growing world population, but we also have the increased feed demands of a growing cattle population in answer to more demand for beef. Soybeans are also a victim/beneficiary of the biofuel boom.
“Combine all of these factors and throw in a little disease and bad weather and you have a recipe for a very hungry world, indeed… and much higher prices.
“This has been an incredible year for agricultural commodities, and many “experts” have been telling me for the last year that I was crazy to buy these commodities at such high levels.
“Of course, they started telling me that when corn was at $2.20 a bushel and wheat at $5.50. Today, corn is trading solidly over $3.50 and wheat is trading close to $9. The bad news for wheat supplies just keeps rolling in. In the latest round of bad news, Australia slashed its harvest forecast 31 % because of dry weather. Wheat is surging as importers line up to buy whatever wheat they can. Global inventories are heading for a 26-year low.
“Soybeans have outperformed expectations, too, as global demand has put a solid floor underneath prices.
“Is all the bad news priced into the grain markets at this point, and have we finally seen the top for the grain rally? Think again. The biggest disaster for the grains may just be getting started.
“According to my sources at farms in Minnesota and Iowa, diseases may be setting in, and this could be devastating to the wheat, bean, and corn crops.
“Corn could be hit hard after a long summer, and hot and dry conditions and hail affected corn yields in Minnesota. The weather conditions favor the development of a disease called ear rot. Reports of ear rot have been coming in from several different areas, and the quality of grain that comes off these affected fields will almost certainly be reduced.
“Meanwhile, things over in the bean patch are not faring much better. According to reports, early defoliation and death in patches of soybeans has occurred recently in fields across Minnesota.
“According to Agriculture Online, “Although numerous soybean fields have started to mature and have suddenly turned yellow in the past week or so, it is obvious in many areas that the yellowing and plant death have been accelerated well beyond what would be typical.”
“Sure, bean and grain prices are very high already — in fact, some of the prices we have been seeing for the agricultural commodities in the last few years are nothing short of astounding. It’s important to recognize, though, that demand has also been astounding. Demand is almost certain to outstrip supply, especially in wheat and soybeans. So even though we are seeing record prices, they may climb further as we head into winter. Therefore, some exposure to the agriculture sector in your portfolio seems like a prudent idea.
“Clearly, the agricultural bull market is far from over, but that’s not to say that we won’t see some extreme volatility. Overall, though, the indications are pretty clear that staple commodities like grains are going to be more in demand and less in supply as time goes on.
“So my forecast for the grain markets is as follows: Higher, but volatile.”
2 Responses
TopVeg Says:
October 4th, 2007 at 8:13 pm
we heard it here first!
SunkIsland Says:
October 5th, 2007 at 11:56 am
It is amazing how the whole market outlook has changed in the last 6 months. Although we have known that world population is increasing & the subsequent demand for food is growing, we have not taken climate change and the volatility of the weather into account.
Farmers have been aware of climate change for years. Forty years ago we expected to cultivate land in January to drill spring barley, because we had dry, frosty periods in January. We have not had a frost like this since the late 1980s.
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