August 9th, 2007 by John
As well as floods in Britain and India, there are now floods in Nabraska and northern Illinois.
Weather related production problems have also hit China, mainland Europe and the Black Sea region. This couldn’t have come at a worse time as grain carry over stocks are extremely low and will plainly go even lower. Experts say that it is not always possible to blame global warming for any individual event, but the severity is almost certainly down to warming. Grain prices have almost doubled over the past year, and although farmers needed some increase in prices, present prices must be really bad news for the poorest people on Earth who have to survive on $1-$2 dollars per day.
We have been warning for some time that the world is heading for serious food shortages as a result of a combination of factors and we have many posts on this site giving more details. The worst case would be if extreme weather problems happen in the future at the same time as fuel shortages.
Governments around the world should consider the present problems as a warning and stock up on grain if we are fortunate enough to have surplus supplies in future years. They should also take drastic action to cut greenhouse gases and conserve finite fuel supplies. If they do not take action, famine is inevitable in the fairly near future.
Posted in Threats to Food Supply | No Comments »
August 8th, 2007 by John
There has been mounting speculation that the U.S Vice President has been urging an invasion of Iraq before it can join the nuclear club. Such an invasion would be highly unpopular throughout the world but it is worth remembering what is at stake.
A nuclear armed Iran would be destabilising, dangerous and unpredictable. The world has become largely dependent on oil from the Middle East and expects the U.S. to keep it flowing. If Iran caused the flow to stop or to slow, all the West’s economies would suffer and food production would be very badly hit. The problem for the U.S. administration is whether to risk an highly unpopular invasion now or face greater problems later.
The chances are that after the experience in Iraq, an invasion will not take place. Instead the U.S. will arm it’s allies to try to contain Iran. Time magazine reported this week that $20 billion of new U.S. arms will be going to Saudi Arabia and neighbouring gulf states plus $13 billion worth for Egypt. Israel could get $30 billion worth of weaponry. Only time will tell whether or not all this weaponry will help to keep the peace or make things worse.
A far better way would be for the West to take measures to reduce oil consumption to make us less vulnerable to future events in the Middle East.
Posted in Security of Energy Supply | No Comments »
By John James
04 August, 2007
Countercurrents.org
It looks like the era of cheap food is over. The price of maize has doubled in a year, and wheat futures are at their highest in a decade. The food price index in India has risen 11%, and in Mexico in January there were riots after the price of corn flour went up fourfold. The floods in England and India have devastated crops. In nearly every country food prices are going up, and they are probably not going to come down again.
Before World War II, most families spent a third or more of their income on food, as the poor majority in developing countries still do. But after the war a series of radical changes, from mechanisation to the green revolution, raised agricultural productivity hugely and caused a long, steep fall in the price of food, to a tenth of many people’s income.
It will probably return to a quarter of a family’s income within a decade, or higher, from four factors:
1) Demand as global population continues to grow and more people want to eat more meat. Early this month, in its annual assessment of farming trends, the UN predicted that in less than 10 years people in the developing countries will be eating 30% more beef, 50% more pig meat and 25% more poultry. With lot-feeding huge amounts of grain-growing land will move from human to animal consumption.
2) Global warming lowers crop yields: see the chart on the right. Christopher Field and David Lobell in Environmental Research Letters in March stated that for every 0.5°C temperature rise, crop yields fall between 3 and 5%. So 2°C hotter means a 12 to 20% fall in global food production just as the population is about to surge over the 7 billion mark.
3) Rising demand for biofuels replaces food production (see “Looming disaster”, right), causing food price hikes that lead to social unrest, such as the recent riots in Mexico. This should be taken in context: a massive report by the major oil companies warns that oil supplies will peak within 8 years, if not sooner. It estimates that production from existing reserves would soon start declining by 3% pa even as world demand for oil is growing by 2% pa. In order to keep the driving public from facing reality politicians will take the easy road and legislate to use more land for biofuels.
