There has been mounting speculation that the U.S Vice President has been urging an invasion of Iraq before it can join the nuclear club. Such an invasion would be highly unpopular throughout the world but it is worth remembering what is at stake.
A nuclear armed Iran would be destabilising, dangerous and unpredictable. The world has become largely dependent on oil from the Middle East and expects the U.S. to keep it flowing. If Iran caused the flow to stop or to slow, all the West’s economies would suffer and food production would be very badly hit. The problem for the U.S. administration is whether to risk an highly unpopular invasion now or face greater problems later.
The chances are that after the experience in Iraq, an invasion will not take place. Instead the U.S. will arm it’s allies to try to contain Iran. Time magazine reported this week that $20 billion of new U.S. arms will be going to Saudi Arabia and neighbouring gulf states plus $13 billion worth for Egypt. Israel could get $30 billion worth of weaponry. Only time will tell whether or not all this weaponry will help to keep the peace or make things worse.
A far better way would be for the West to take measures to reduce oil consumption to make us less vulnerable to future events in the Middle East.