July 16th, 2007 by John
The extreme weather events that we are seeing in many parts of the world, are being made more frequent and more severe by global warming according to most experts. Although we have always had times of droughts, floods and hurricanes, the change brought on by around 1C of warming should make us extremely worried about the effect of a rise of the 3C or more that now seems certain unless radical steps are taken.
Over the last few years, extreme weather events bad enough to hit food production have happened in almost every part on the world though thankfully not at the same time. These problems have helped to bring world food stocks down to such a dangerous level that further severe droughts, floods or wet harvests would push us in to real food shortages.
Right now in the U.K. we are suffering from very wet conditions just as the cereal and oilseed harvest begins. Many pea crops have simply died as their roots cannot stand waterlogged conditions for very long. Potato fields are suffering from outbreaks of blight as it is so wet that farmers can’t get on the land to apply their normal fungicide programme. Up here in East Yorkshire, on the few occasions when harvesting has been possible, many combines have sunk down to their axles. We desperately need a period of dry weather now.
In contrast, Eastern Europe has had extremely high temperatures. Australia has had several years of drought followed by floods in some places. The U.S. has also had severe drought but luckily, the main grain growing areas have not been too badly hit.
The lesson that we should be learning from this is that we must keep warming down to levels where we have some chance of coping. Experts say that radical action to reduce emissions now could limit warming to about +2C. and maybe we could cope with that. In my opinion, more then that would cause such difficulties that famine would be the result.
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Large quantities of fresh water are needed to grow crops , on average about 1,000 tons of water is used to grow 1 tonne of food, and in many parts of the world there are severe shortages as cities and industry compete with farmers. As with most things, the per capita availability of water is falling and will continue to do so. In Real Truth Magazine, M.Wayne Iceenhower reports on the growing tensions over water.
“In 1995, 31 countries—with combined populations of 458 million people—faced water stress or water scarcity, with most of the stressed areas found in the third world. The next year, 54% of all accessible freshwater from lakes, rivers, streams and underground aquifers were being consumed.
“In Africa, where 43% of the land surface is arid, drought was anticipated as a normal part of a cycle every five to six years. However, severe droughts have occurred much more frequently in recent years, affecting more than 50 million people and killing at least 2 million. This year, a spokesman for the United Nations’ Food and Agricultural Organization warned that 11 million people living in East Africa would die unless a massive relief effort commenced immediately.
“Severe drought in northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and southwest Somalia has caused livestock to become practically worthless. “I have walked for three days to bring these animals here, and now I have to sell them at whatever price I am offered because they will not be strong enough to walk back again,” said Hussein Aden, age 25 (“Africa: Economies Worst Placed to Cope With Knock-On Effects of Drought,” UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs).
“Growing water scarcity in China could threaten economic expansion. The nation became a net food importer in 2004 due to both land and water shortages. While the present situation cannot be referred to as a crisis, increased drought (common in the north) and floods (common in the south) could quickly change the situation.
“As all nations attempt to cope with growing populations, changing weather patterns and shrinking water reserves, water will become a point of contention. The UN acknowledges that “hot spots” of conflict between nations will probably result. Here are just a few examples:
• Israel and Jordan have had past disagreements about water ownership and use, though a treaty in 1994 somewhat cooled tensions.
“• The tiny Jewish state occupies and controls the headwaters of the Jordan River, much to the dissatisfaction of Syria and Jordan. (One cause of the 1967 Arab-Israeli war was said to be water.)
“• The waters of the Blue Nile have long been a source of heated contention between Egypt and Ethiopia. Egypt’s very existence is dependent on the Nile, which supplies 98% of its water needs.
• In Turkey, the Southeast Anatolia Project is poised to divert half of the flow of the Euphrates River.
“In short, water scarcity can lead to the exchange of strong words, saber-rattling—and even armed conflict. In a world of competing nations where the powerful exploit the weak, water can and will be used as an excuse to wage war.”
