July 22nd, 2007 by John
Extreme Islamic fundamentalists are now at war with the West in general and the USA in particular. This is acknowledged by Western and Islamic leaders alike. Unfortunately, Muslims are also almost at war with each other. Civil war between Sunni and Shi’ites is a distinct possibility. Mid East conflict is possibly a more immediate threat to Western oil supplies and therefore to food production than Peak Oil. The extreme importance of Mid East oil supplies for the continued functioning of the Western and now Eastern economies and food supplies is very well understood but rarely discussed, probably because the consequences of a large and sustained reduction in supplies from that region are too disastrous to contemplate. Turmoil in the region would also disrupt supplies from the increasingly important Caspian Sea region. In the past, Sunnis have been politically dominant and the Shi’ites were generally underprivileged. Now that there is a Shi’ite government in Iraq as well as in Iran, old hatreds are emerging. Iran is meddling in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine and seems determined to possess nuclear weapons which is causing alarm in Arab areas. Sunni-Shi’ite violence is increasing throughout the area and in to Pakistan.
U.S. presence in the Mid East has been designed to stabilize the region and keep the oil flowing. The removal of Saddam Hussein who had waged war on Iran and then Kuwait was seen as a way of stabilizing the area and giving a warning to other rogue states. Unfortunately it has not worked out that way. Iran has seen its main enemy (Saddam Hussein) removed and is now emboldened to develop nuclear weapons because it is unlikely that an overstretched U.S. would risk invading Iran. U.S. and British public opinion favours an early withdrawal from Iraq never mind a war with Iran. So the U.S. and British policy (backed by most of the Western leaders despite not publicly showing their support) of stopping Mid East countries and sects from destroying each other as well as the oil infrastructure, is now in disarray. If the present last ditch attempt at bringing peace to Iraq fails, any future intervention may be impossible, especially if atomic bombs are obtained by one or more of the Mid East countries.
Posted in Security of Energy Supply | No Comments »
July 21st, 2007 by John
The announcement by the agricultural commissioner that she will try to get approval to suspend set-aside shows how out of touch with the reality of the world food situation they are. They have allowed European intervention stocks to fall from 14 million tonnes to 2.5 million tons - nowhere near enough if we have a disastrous harvest, which given the extreme weather we have been having is more than a possibility.
Even now, the suspension has to be agreed by EU farm ministers and so it could be early October before we know for sure. That is a disgraceful situation. Farmers need to plan their cropping now, buy seed and start cultivations.
Fischer Boel said that global closing stocks are expected to fall to their lowest in 28 years and she expects high prices to persist due to a combination of bad harvests, as well as growing demand for cereals, in particular maize, for bio-ethenol.
The suspension of set-aside is welcome, but the commission should now be doing all it can to encourage production by other means so that grain stocks reach safe levels. Most set-aside is on poor land or is growing industrial crops, and anyone driving through mainland Europe sees very little set-aside, so the extra production may not be very great.
Posted in Threats to Food Supply | 1 Comment »
Even though there is still some relatively small areas of underused land in parts of the old Soviet Union and elsewhere, worldwide we are losing vast areas to desertification, salination and the paving over for new housing, industry roads and other transport infrastructure.
Most unused land in the world is either too hot or too cold, too wet or too dry, too steep or too rocky. With rapid urbanisation happening in most parts of the world, it’s mainly using up flat, fertile land on coastal plains or near rivers. Cities are rarely built in deserts or on mountain sides. China’s population is expected to stabilize at 1.6 billion by 2030 and by then the urban population will have increased by 350 million to 880 million. Analysts from Investec say that to house these people will need almost 50 cities the size of greater London It is hard to imagine the loss of good agricultural land this will cause, but similar urbanisation is taking place in India and the rest of the world.
Most land that has been brought in to farming recently is from rainforest. This is, of course, an ecological disaster and is being discouraged, but in any case much of the rainforest now being destroyed is going in to biofuel production, either palm oil for biodiesel or sugar cane for ethenol.
With world population expected to increase by 1.4 billion to 8 billion by 2025, and most wanting to move up the food chain by eating more meat, there will surely soon be a desperate shortage of good farmland.
