Extreme Islamic fundamentalists are now at war with the West in general and the USA in particular. This is acknowledged by Western and Islamic leaders alike. Unfortunately, Muslims are also almost at war with each other. Civil war between Sunni and Shi’ites is a distinct possibility. Mid East conflict is possibly a more immediate threat to Western oil supplies and therefore to food production than Peak Oil. The extreme importance of Mid East oil supplies for the continued functioning of the Western and now Eastern economies and food supplies is very well understood but rarely discussed, probably because the consequences of a large and sustained reduction in supplies from that region are too disastrous to contemplate. Turmoil in the region would also disrupt supplies from the increasingly important Caspian Sea region. In the past, Sunnis have been politically dominant and the Shi’ites were generally underprivileged. Now that there is a Shi’ite government in Iraq as well as in Iran, old hatreds are emerging. Iran is meddling in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine and seems determined to possess nuclear weapons which is causing alarm in Arab areas. Sunni-Shi’ite violence is increasing throughout the area and in to Pakistan.
U.S. presence in the Mid East has been designed to stabilize the region and keep the oil flowing. The removal of Saddam Hussein who had waged war on Iran and then Kuwait was seen as a way of stabilizing the area and giving a warning to other rogue states. Unfortunately it has not worked out that way. Iran has seen its main enemy (Saddam Hussein) removed and is now emboldened to develop nuclear weapons because it is unlikely that an overstretched U.S. would risk invading Iran. U.S. and British public opinion favours an early withdrawal from Iraq never mind a war with Iran. So the U.S. and British policy (backed by most of the Western leaders despite not publicly showing their support) of stopping Mid East countries and sects from destroying each other as well as the oil infrastructure, is now in disarray. If the present last ditch attempt at bringing peace to Iraq fails, any future intervention may be impossible, especially if atomic bombs are obtained by one or more of the Mid East countries.