Peak Food

The United States is a land with bountiful resources of all kinds of minerals, oil and gas reserves, agricultural land and best of all, a well educated, innovative and hard working people. In addition, it has the most powerful armed forces the world has ever seen. But, in my opinion, it is in a worse position to deal with the looming threats of climate change, oil and gas shortages, and Jihadist attacks then any developed country.

How can this be?

America has become incredibly wealthy by exploiting its resources, but most of all, by using lots and lots of energy from finite fossil fuels. In agriculture, Americans were way ahead of the rest of the world in turning oil calories in to food calories. While the rest of the world’s farmers were using the muscle power of horses, oxen and humans to till the land and harvest the crops before world war II, U.S. farmers were introducing tractors and harvesters to the huge field of the grain belt, where they were highly suited. This early mechanisation of farming freed up labour to work in industry. In industry too, Americans were leaders at using fossil energy to increase productivity, with highly mechanised factories using production line methods.

This mechanisation of farming, allowing most of the population to work in manufacturing or service industries is the key to prosperity. Even now, the poverty of a nation can usually be discovered by the proportion of it’s workers still employed in farming. In America today, despite being a big food exporter,  only about 2% of the population work in agriculture. In many poor countries, over 75% still work in farming.

So why America the vulnerable?

Americans have become so expert at using fossil fuels to raise living standards that they have developed a system that depends on cheap plentiful and reliable supplies of oil and gas. Unreliable, scarce and very expensive oil and gas are no good.

America had massive reserves of oil and gas, and still does, but the system is now so hungry that about 22 million barrels of oil are used each and every day, about 25% of the world total, when domestic production is only about 7.5 million barrels per day and falling. Each American needs about twice as much oil as each European even though Europeans have a high standard of living. This means that the American system will collapse more easily and completely when the big oil shock comes.

Because petrol (gas) is not heavily taxed in the U.S. there has been no incentive to use fuel efficient cars or to live close to work and shopping. Public transport and trains are not preferred to cars and airplanes and cities are built in locations that would be intolerable without air-conditioned cars, homes and offices. In the best American tradition of free competition, food is produced intensively where the soil and climate are best for that crop and it is then trucked all over the U.S.

I have been on several bus tours to the U.S. and was surprised that close to some big cities there were no fields of potatoes or vegetables. In some areas there are no grazing cattle and then suddenly there are thousands all together on a few acres, crowding  under sun shelters, in a district that has no obvious cropping to feed them. Plainly, all the feed is trucked in from where it’s cheapest.

The finite nature of oil, Peak Oil, middle east turmoil, terrorist attacks on oil installations, the possible establishment of an extreme Islamic state covering much of  the middle east including nuclear Pakistan, are all threats that have been covered by other posts on this site.

America is so dependent on imported oil and gas that it is more vulnerable to collapse, especially in agriculture, when they are no longer easily available. Because of the events in Iraq and the possibility of nuclear weapons in Iran as well as those in a future radical Pakistan, it may not be easy to use U.S. military might to secure supplies.

Let’s hope that the next administration uses legislation and taxation to reduce dependence on imported oil. At the same time that would help in the battle against that other big threat-climate change.

Has anyone any ideas on how America would react to a severe and prolonged shortage of oil? Please leave a comment.