These stocks represent an insurance against a really poor world harvest and in 1999 these reserves were big enough to feed the entire world for 116 days. This harvest, stocks will be down to about 57 days supply which is considered to be a dangerous level. The reason this is dangerous is that if we have a harvest this year that is again below consumption, panic and speculation could easily begin.
Greed and fear may take over. There would be those who would seize the chance to make huge profits from the situation and those who would fear hunger, starvation or the loss of their business or job.
Hoarding would take place at every level. Farmers would hold back supplies hoping for price increases; flour mills and processors of food would try to stockpile enough supplies to keep their businesses running; and ordinary consumers would stash flour, beans and dried foods in their cellars. Panic buying would empty supermarket shelves, adding to the sense of shortage and causing even more panic.
Let’s hope that we have a series of good harvests so that stocks can be rebuilt before climate change, peak oil, land losses and population increases cause the problems described in my book Famine in the West.
Unfortunately the outlook isn’t promising. Wheat prices have risen from about £60/ tonne to £100/ tonne in the last two years, but worryingly the price has gone up £10/ tonne in the last 10 days, obviously reflecting fears about the size of the coming harvest.
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