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Farmers Weekly’s David Richardson reviews Famine in the West

June 22nd, 2007 by John

Today David Richardson wrote in the Farmers Weekly that Famine in the West was “impressive” and  ”thoroughly researched with obvious vigour.” He also said:

“And although its academic content is excellent, it is written in language that can be readily understood by farmers and non-farmers alike.  Indeed, I strongly recommend it, especially to Gordon Brown and David Miliband, who clearly have not yet appreciated its message.

“John Gossop pulls together the host of statistics on global warming, declining oil supplies and increasing demand for food that have been released, piecemeal, over recent years.  He concludes that the world has been living on cheap energy created by photosynthesis and the power of the sun millions of years ago and that its availability and cheapness are drawing to a close.

“He believes the energy crisis will come much faster than most commentators expect and that this, combined with competition for land to produce food, will trigger famine, even in the wealthy west, within 12 to 15 years.  He despairs at the culture of denial that rules in many countries and he calls for the pending disaster to be tackled urgently on a worldwide basis.

“He cites emergency measures taken during World War II that enabled the Allies to increase the production of armaments and food that were crucial in defeating the Nazis.  He believes that the worsening crisis should be tacked on a similar war footing and start immediately.  He proposes measures that he claims would enable farmers to make significant contributions to our survival.”

 If you would like to read Famine in the West  the ebook is available at the special introductory price of £2.50 (about $4.99).  Alternatively you can order a printed version that becomes available in August, with no obligation to buy then.

Posted in Peak Food in the News | 2 Comments »

Thomas Malthus, Peak Food Prophet

June 21st, 2007 by John

Thomas Malthus, in his famous essay, predicted that hunger, disease and famine would result from the earth’s food-producing capabilities failing to keep up with human population growth, because population grows exponentially (2, 4 ,8, 16 etc) while food supplies expand linearly (1, 2, 3 ,4 etc).

He was, perhaps, 200 years early as several factors allowed food production to keep up with population growth until the last few years.

First of all, massive supplies from the vast new lands of the Americas and Australasia became available as settlers from Europe ploughed up ancient natural grasslands to grow grain. Slowly, the transport infrastructure of railways and shipping facilities were built allowing this food to be transported worldwide.

But the one thing that Malthus could not possibly have foreseen was that it would become possible to convert fossil fuels in to food through agriculture.

Fossil fuel powered machines have replaced horses and other beasts of burden, completely in the West but not quite yet in the developing world. This increased productivity many times over, but more significantly, it released the 30% of land that had been needed to grow the hay, oats and other food needed for the millions of horses used in farming, transport and the army.

Then came the discovery that nitrogen fertiliser could be manufactured using fossil fuels. This boosted yields enormously so that today it is estimated that on average, 40% of our grain yield is due to nitrogen fertiliser. Similarly, pesticides made from fossil fuels have boosted yields by reducing weed competition, killing insect pests and reducing fungal diseases.

Fossil fuels have also allowed large scale pumped irrigation, cheap transportation and better food storage by drying or freezing.

Unfortunately, there are no vast new lands to exploit, fossil fuels are finite and future supplies uncertain, while climate change is causing extreme weather events such as droughts and floods that are having an increasing negative impact on food production. At the same time world population continues to rise by 80-90 million per year, so that by 2025 there will be 8 billion people to feed.

The fact that Malthus’s prediction did not come true when he said it would may have given us a false sense of security that it never will. In my book Famine in the West I try to warn that if we do not take urgent action, famine is a certainty.

 

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Posted in Threats to Food Supply | No Comments »

New Dark Age after Peak Oil

June 21st, 2007 by John

In an excellent article in Business Week, Eugene Linden explains the meaning and possible consequences of Peak Oil.

“Peak oil refers to the point at which world oil production plateaus before beginning to decline as depletion of the world’s remaining reserves offsets ever-increased drilling. Some experts argue that we’re already there, and that we won’t exceed by much the daily production high of 84.5 million barrels first reached in 2005. If so, global production will bump along near these levels for years before beginning an inexorable decline.

“What would that mean? Alternatives are still a decade away from meeting incremental demand for oil. With nothing to fill the gap, global economic growth would slow, stop, and then reverse; international tensions would soar as nations seek access to diminishing supplies, enriching autocratic rulers in unstable oil states; and, unless other sources of energy could be ramped up with extreme haste, the world would plunge into a new Dark Age. Even as faltering economies burned less oil, carbon loading of the atmosphere might accelerate as countries turn to vastly dirtier coal.”

Surprisingly, no mention is made of what this would mean for food production, but as more coal burning would accelerate climate change with negative effects on farming, and as food production in the West is totally dependent on oil and gas inputs, we can safely say that Peak Oil equals Peak Food and declining oil equals declining food.

Posted in Peak Oil | No Comments »

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