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Three die in Yorkshire Floods 25th June

June 26th, 2007 by Leanne

 flooded road behind my house

Yesterday three people died in Yorkshire (the county where I live) because of flash floods.  A Hull man died when his foot became stuck while he was in a drain.  A 13 year-old was swept away from a park in Sheffied and a 68-year old man was washed away whilst getting out of his car.

 

My son sailing his boat in flood water

About 100ml of rain fell in Hull over a 24 hour period making over 40 schools close and  thousands of people homeless.  Police struggled to control looters and many people were in a state of panic.  My son (pictuted here sailing a boat outside our house) was sent home from school and I have to take time off work to look after him until school reopens.  The lives of ordinairy people like my friend Sara from Farming Friends were turned upside down.  Crops were damaged and when it comes to harvest time, yields will be less.

As weather patterns become more extreme because of climate change we will see more and more of this kind of chaos.  Thus multiplied, the future effect on food production will be significant.

 

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Water Shortages mean Less Food Per Capita

June 25th, 2007 by Leanne

 A key factor in increased food supplies in the past 50 years has been irrigation, often pumped using fossil fuel energy. About 70% of all water use is for irrigation. Population growth implies that we will need much more irrigation, but in fact water supplies in many areas are falling. As demand for water has increased, aquifers have been overpumped in many parts of the world and some have collapsed and will not refill with water.

Many fossil aquifers that hold water from thousands of years ago are emptying and cannot be replenished. Land that feeds from them then reverts to low yield, dry land farming or in arid regions it stops being useful altogether. Fossil aquifers under great pressure include the U.S. Ogallala Aquifer and the deep North China Plain Aquifer.

Farmers and cities in North China, having depleted shallow supplies, are now pumping water from the deep aquifer under Heibei Province at great cost and causing water levels to drop by 3 metres a year according to the Geological Environmental Monitoring Institute (GEMI).

Some areas such as the Western U.S. are tapping rivers when underground supplies become scare but then rivers are also being overused.

In many parts of the world where rivers run through two or more countries, bitter disputes arise as each country extracts more and more water. Cities and industry compete with agriculture and even in the U.S., cities sometimes buy up the water extraction rights from farmers who then abandon the land.

Water is usually the deciding factor as to whether land can be used for farming or not. Some areas are fortunate enough to have sufficient natural rainfall to produce high yields but more often lack of water at the right time limits yield. That’s not surprising considering that over 600 litres of water is taken up by a corn crop to produce 1 kg of grain and around 4000 litres for 1 kg of rice.

There have been many reports documenting the water shortage crisis for cities and industry but remarkably little attention given to the devastating effect on food production. Water use is increased as people move onto diets with more meat and the worldwide demand for water is doubling every 21 years according to the World Bank. Countries that are unable to meet the irrigation needs of agriculture are importing more and more grain and will be in a perilous position when those supplies are no longer available. As with all our natural resources, the big problem is that as the population rises to 8 billion by 2025 the amount of water per capita will decrease and less water per person inevitably means less food per person.

 

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The End of Cheap Food?

June 23rd, 2007 by John

One indicator of how close we are to Peak Food, the time when food availability per capita peaks and then begins to decline, is the price of food worldwide. Of course, the price has always fluctuated, especially locally, and is subject to political manipulation through subsidies and duties, but since September 06 the price of wheat has gone from about £70/tonne to over £100/ tonne now. Next year looks set for a further increase.

The Independent on 23/06/07 said, “We are so used to our ultra -competitive supermarket sector keeping down prices that it comes as rather a shock to discover that the same item we bought a few weeks ago has become more expensive. But the shock value is beginning to wear off. Food prices are now rising at 6% a year, twice as quickly as the general cost of living. And it is not just in the UK that we are witnessing this trend. In India the overall food price index is 10% higher than last year. In China, prices are up 10% for some staples. A similar inflationary trend can be discerned in America.

“The immediate reason for this is that global commodity prices are rising. Earlier this month, wheat prices reached their highest level in 10 years. Maize prices have doubled over the past year. Rice prices are rising too. This is being passed on to the price of other foodstuffs such as meat and eggs, as these commodities are used for animal feed.”

The article goes on to discuss the reasons for these increased prices and mentions higher demand from Asia, higher fuel prices and the increasing use of food crops as a source of energy.

All of these issues and more that will lead to Peak Food are dealt with in the many posts under several categories on this site and in my book Famine in the West.

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