One indicator of how close we are to Peak Food, the time when food availability per capita peaks and then begins to decline, is the price of food worldwide. Of course, the price has always fluctuated, especially locally, and is subject to political manipulation through subsidies and duties, but since September 06 the price of wheat has gone from about £70/tonne to over £100/ tonne now. Next year looks set for a further increase.
The Independent on 23/06/07 said, “We are so used to our ultra -competitive supermarket sector keeping down prices that it comes as rather a shock to discover that the same item we bought a few weeks ago has become more expensive. But the shock value is beginning to wear off. Food prices are now rising at 6% a year, twice as quickly as the general cost of living. And it is not just in the UK that we are witnessing this trend. In India the overall food price index is 10% higher than last year. In China, prices are up 10% for some staples. A similar inflationary trend can be discerned in America.
“The immediate reason for this is that global commodity prices are rising. Earlier this month, wheat prices reached their highest level in 10 years. Maize prices have doubled over the past year. Rice prices are rising too. This is being passed on to the price of other foodstuffs such as meat and eggs, as these commodities are used for animal feed.”
The article goes on to discuss the reasons for these increased prices and mentions higher demand from Asia, higher fuel prices and the increasing use of food crops as a source of energy.
All of these issues and more that will lead to Peak Food are dealt with in the many posts under several categories on this site and in my book Famine in the West.