The recent rise in population, especially in the last 60 years has been absolutely incredible. Population throughout history was always limited by the availability of food. When hunting and gathering was the norm, there were only a few million people on Earth. As people began growing crops and keeping animals this increased, but even then it is estimated that 2000 years ago there were only 300 million people. It then took until the early 1800s for the 1 billion mark to be passed but only about another 100 years for the next billion to be added by 1925. By 1945 there were about 2.5 billion, then things really took off. In the 62 years since, we have added an amazing 4 billion to reach 6.6 billion and in the next 18 years to 2025 it is expected that we will gain another 1.4 billion to reach 8 billion.
So the carrying capacity of the Earth has increased at an unbelievable rate especially since 1945. But how? The answer is easy, it’s almost all down to oil and gas. Oil has allowed mechanisation, thereby releasing land that was previously needed to feed horses and oxen. It has also allowed pumped irrigation of many dry areas. Natural gas is used in massive quantities in the energy intensive production of nitrogen fertiliser, now responsible for about 40% 0f our grain yield.
Should we be deprived of part of our supplies of oil and gas, food supplies would also decline at a time when we need much more. Peak Oil or problems in the Middle East are bound to cause this to happen at some time. We are using a finite resource for an infinite need.
The amount of farmland per person on Earth in 1970 was 0.28ha but at current rates will be 0.15 by 2050. That’s really frightening.