In a brief summary for the Atlantic Council, lead author Robert Hirsch said, “The peaking of world oil production presents the US and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.”
HIRSCH CONCLUSIONS
* World oil peaking is going to happen, and will likely be abrupt.
* Oil peaking will adversely affect global economies, particularly those most dependent on oil.
* Oil peaking presents a unique challenge (”it will be abrupt and revolutionary”)
* Mitigation efforts will require substantial time.
* 20 years is required to transition without substantial impacts.
*A 10 year rush transition with moderate impacts is possible with extraordinary efforts from governments, industry, and consumers.
*Late initiation of mitigation may result in severe consequences.
* Both supply and demand will require attention.
* It is a matter of risk management (mitigating action must come before the peak).
* Government intervention will be required.
*Economic upheaval is not inevitable (”given enough lead time, the problems are soluble with existing technologies.”)
* More information is needed to more precisely determine the peak timeframe.
It seems to me that the last conclusion is crucial but the problem is that most experts tell us that we will only recognise the peak after it has happened. In addition, accurate reserve figures are impossible to obtain from most producing nations. The only certainty seems to be that most reserves have been routinely overstated for reasons associated with politics, quota levels and share prices.
