Peak Food

The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has produced a series of reports on the effects of climate change to come.    One report says, “By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people (in Africa) are projected to be exposed to an increase of water stress due to climate change.” The Independent newspaper  stated, “….. some of the projected changes are horrifying - and only just around the corner.”Â

African agricultural production is projected to be “severely compromised by climate variability and change,” with decreases likely in the area suitable for agriculture, the length of the growing season and yield potential. Â In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 20% by 2020.

Asia is not far behind, with many negative impacts expected. They include a water “double whammy” as Himalayan glaciers irreversibly melt, first  increasing flooding in glacier-fed rivers from the meltwater, then decreasing water resources as the glaciers disappear.

 Asian coastal areas, especially the big cities in the seven “mega-deltas” from India’s Ganges to China’s Yangtze, will be at greatly increased risk of flooding, with an associated increase in death due to diarrhoeal disease, while by 2050, crop yields in central and south Asia may drop by 30%.

In Latin America, water supplies available for human consumption are predicted to be “significantly affected” by changes in rainfall patterns and the disapearance of Andean glaciers. Parts of the Amazon rainforest are likely to turn into semi-arid savannah.